Setting Goal Times
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Hal: One thing I like about your training plans is that they are based on experience, rather than race time: how fast runners might have run before. Nevertheless, if you had to set a goal time for each of your marathon training programs--Novice 1 through Advanced 2--what would you set as the goal time for each program?
I don’t discriminate between programs. They are based less on how fast you may have run your marathon or half marathon, but rather how much experience (at any pace) you have as a runner. First marathon? I’m going to point you to Novice 1 or 2. Looking to run more miles? Intermediate 1 and 2 are focused entirely on adding miles to your log. Comfortable running speedwork? If not, please stay away from Advanced 1 and 2. Your best previous marathon does not automatically put you into a slot. I like to feel that 3-hour marathoners can benefit from a Novice program; that 5-hour marathoners can do the same from Advanced. Realistically, of course, beginners choose the novice programs and most of those following advanced programs probably have more than a few marathons under their belts. Choice of program must be made by each runner, although I sometimes nudge people in what I consider the right direction.
That disclaimer out of the way, your most recent time becomes (by default) your goal time for your next marathon. However, if you can safely increase your training, and a test race or two reveals a higher level of fitness, then you may want to reset your goal time to a higher point.
Or lower point, as sometimes happens.